Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3960
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 3960 · SMF → PHX
departs 11:43 AM PT · arrives 1:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.