Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4044 · BWI → DTW
departs 9:03 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.