Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4110
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4110 · BWI → ROC
departs 9:13 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ROC that day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.