Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4200 · AUS → LAS
departs 5:58 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.