Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 420 · BUF → BWI
departs 12:39 PM ET · arrives 1:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BUF that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.08 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.