Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4255
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4255 · SLC → SAN
departs 2:48 PM MT · arrives 3:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.83 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.