WN 4303 · DEN → SFO

departs 8:37 AM MT · arrives 10:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 61% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4303 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?