Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4306 · PHX → MCI
departs 11:21 AM MT · arrives 3:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.