Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4307
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4307 · HOU → PHX
departs 8:53 AM CT · arrives 9:36 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
8am departures from HOU are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.