Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4378
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4378 · AUS → MCO
departs 11:13 AM CT · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Sat 10/17 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.