WN 4382 · BOS → SAN

departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 1:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.02 in

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4382 · BOS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?