WN 4508 · SNA → DEN

departs 8:20 AM PT · arrives 11:33 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4508 · SNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?