WN 4560 · BWI → PVD

departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 10:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at PVD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PVD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4560 · BWI → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?