Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4743 · BWI → MEM
departs 1:23 PM ET · arrives 2:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.