WN 4757 · MDW → PHL

departs 5:58 PM CT · arrives 9:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4757 · MDW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?