Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4796 · LAX → PHX
departs 11:29 AM PT · arrives 12:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAX are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.