Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4823 · BWI → ABQ
departs 11:43 AM ET · arrives 1:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.