Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4920
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4920 · BWI → MHT
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MHT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MHT (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.