Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4941
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 4941 · OAK → SLC
departs 6:58 PM PT · arrives 9:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.