Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4960
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4960 · SJU → MCO
departs 3:38 PM AT · arrives 6:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.