Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 522 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

WN 522 · MCO → ROC

departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 1:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at ROC that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 522 · MCO → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?