Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 646 · LAS → BNA
departs 10:22 AM PT · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.