Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 793 · BOS → BWI
departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Sat 10/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.