Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 806 · BUR → PHX
departs 10:53 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.