Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 834 · BUF → MCO
departs 7:28 AM ET · arrives 10:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15 3%
Fri 10/16 4%
Sat 10/17 4%
Sun 10/18 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BUF that day
↑
Other factors
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.