Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 8504 · OAK → DEN
departs 7:06 AM PT · arrives 10:30 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
7am departures from OAK are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.