Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 860 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

WN 860 · BWI → BNA

departs 9:28 AM ET · arrives 10:22 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 860 · BWI → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?