Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 951 · BWI → LAS
departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.