Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 954 · BWI → BDL
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BDL that day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.