Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 971 · PHX → TUS
departs 12:38 PM MT · arrives 1:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.