Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

YV 4019 · MFE → IAH

departs 5:17 AM CT · arrives 6:43 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MFE are usually not late

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4019 · MFE → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?