Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 4060 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

YV 4060 · IAH → GSP

departs 12:25 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

GSP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4060 · IAH → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?