Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

YV 6164 · IAH → OKC

departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 1:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ OKC is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into OKC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

OKC (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6164 · IAH → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?