Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6178 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

YV 6178 · IAH → MFE

departs 10:09 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MFE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

MFE (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6178 · IAH → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?