Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3301 · IAD → YQB
departs 9:08 AM ET · arrives 11:23 AM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at YQB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YQB?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at YQB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into YQB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
YQB (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.