Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3303
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3303 · IAD → PWM
departs 9:08 AM ET · arrives 11:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at PWM that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.