Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3409 · BOS → IAD
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.