Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3410 · EWR → BTV
departs 8:07 AM ET · arrives 9:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BTV at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BTV (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.