Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3436 · EWR → MCI
departs 2:47 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.