Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3438 · DLH → ORD
departs 7:54 AM CT · arrives 9:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DLH that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
DLH is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DLH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.633333 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.