Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3449 · EWR → HXD
departs 10:25 AM ET · arrives 12:58 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at HXD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HXD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HXD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.