Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3456 · BTV → EWR
departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.68 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.