Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3535
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3535 · IAD → CHS
departs 5:14 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CHS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.