Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3539 · IAD → YUL
departs 12:41 PM ET · arrives 2:37 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at YUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YUL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at YUL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
YUL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.