Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3546 · MCI → IAD
departs 5:54 PM CT · arrives 9:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.36 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.