Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3568
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3568 · YQB → EWR
departs 12:46 PM EDT · arrives 2:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave YQB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at YQB that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
YQB (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.56 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.