Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3645 · BTV → IAD
departs 10:17 AM ET · arrives 12:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↓
10am departures from BTV are usually not late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.64 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.