Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3688
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3688 · PWM → ORD
departs 8:09 AM ET · arrives 10:08 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.64 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.