Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3705
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 3705 · YYZ → EWR
departs 3:16 PM EDT · arrives 5:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 46%
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.