Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4346
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 4346 · LGA → ATL
departs 4:46 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 34%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.